Why Does Goldman Sachs See Further Upside in Reliance Industries Despite Retail Moderation?
About Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries remains India’s most diversified corporate platform, spanning energy, refining, petrochemicals, telecom, retail and emerging digital ecosystems. Its scale, balance sheet strength and operating integration provide structural resilience across business cycles.
Goldman Sachs continues to view Reliance as a core compounder within the Indian equity universe, driven by refining cash flows and long-term telecom monetisation.
While near-term retail growth has moderated due to weak discretionary demand and festive base effects, Goldman Sachs believes this is being offset by a structurally strong refining environment and improving telecom fundamentals.
Key Goldman Sachs Observations
🔹 Retail growth moderation expected in Q3 due to base effects and demand softness.
🔹 Refining fundamentals remain tight through CY27.
🔹 Crude differentials across alternative grades are improving.
🔹 Telecom EBITDA CAGR of ~18% expected over FY26–30.
Goldman Sachs has trimmed near-term retail growth assumptions but raised refining estimates, resulting in largely unchanged overall earnings forecasts. The brokerage notes that refining margins continue to be supported by tight product markets and favourable crude sourcing dynamics.
From a trading and positioning standpoint, many participants align broader market exposure through a Nifty Scalping Tip framework during index-heavy stock movements.
Segmental Outlook Snapshot
| Segment | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Refining | Strong margins supported by tight markets |
| Retail | Near-term moderation, medium-term recovery |
| Telecom | 18% EBITDA CAGR visibility |
Optional upside could emerge if crude sourcing from Venezuela resumes, which would further enhance refining economics. Goldman Sachs sees this as an upside risk rather than a base-case assumption.
Valuation & Investment View
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,835, valuing Reliance on a sum-of-the-parts basis that captures refining cash flows, telecom growth and optionality from new energy initiatives.
For index participants, positioning using a BankNifty Scalping Tip approach often reflects sentiment shifts in heavyweight stocks like Reliance.
Investor Takeaway
Derivative Pro & Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, believes that Reliance Industries continues to offer a rare blend of defensive cash flows and growth optionality. While retail may see short-term moderation, refining strength and telecom monetisation provide long-term earnings stability. Deeper market perspectives are available at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
Written by Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services
