What Do Brokerages Signal About Market Direction as INR Weakens and Sector Calls Shift?
The latest analyst commentaries show a mixed but improving tone across Indian equities, despite short-term volatility driven by INR weakness, operational disruptions in aviation, and profit-taking in large indices. Brokerage views suggest a potential shift toward tactical accumulation in select sectors rather than broad caution.
The day’s updates indicate renewed focus on aviation, telecom, financials, cement, and mid-large IT. Rates, policy events, and currency action continue to influence positioning, particularly ahead of RBI decisions and global macro flows.
🔹 US Supreme Court decision enables political maps favouring Republicans—could affect global policy & capital sentiment.
🔹 Rising crude and weakening INR remain immediate headwinds.
🔹 FPI activity remains cautious, while domestic flows provide market floor.
🔹 Macro indicators improving according to JPMorgan cycle trackers.
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Brokerage Calls & Themes
🟢 Citi: BUY — TP ₹6,500 🟢 Morgan Stanley: Overweight — TP cut to ₹6,540 Operational recalibration ongoing; normalization expected within 30 days. Rising ATF + INR weakness remain risks.
Telecom
HSBC reiterates:
✔ Airtel BUY ₹2,350
✔ Jio BUY ₹1,750
🔻 Vodafone Idea Reduce ₹5.8 Jio continues the strongest subscriber traction; fixed wireless access scaling fast.
Cement
JPMorgan: Sentiment reset → possible tactical bounce. Lowered expectations now considered realistic for H2FY26.
INR Outlook
📌 UBS & Morgan Stanley see near-term pressure, but expect stabilisation by Q1CY26 if trade deal clarity improves.
Corporate Highlights
⭐ SpiceJet guides strong operational scale-up — ASK to double by Dec 2026.
⭐ Coforge recognised as Leader in Enterprise QE (Everest Group 2025).
⭐ MOFSL reaffirms BUY on JSW Infra ₹360 and Prestige Estate ₹2,295.
⭐ JPMorgan sees catch-up potential in Indian equities driven by earnings acceleration and narrowing valuation gap to EM peers.
Sector Reading & Tactical Lens
🔹 Telecom continues market share consolidation with premiumisation themes intact.
🔹 Cement sentiment improving after reset.
🔹 Realty remains strong; institutional money flow supportive.
🔹 IT sees mild tailwinds from weaker rupee and improving order conversions.
Investor Takeaway
Certified Derivative Pro Tiger and Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser observes that micro-sector positioning and currency-aware entry timing matter more than index-level noise in the current cycle. With policy clarity, select sectors may lead a broader recovery phase.
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SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
