Will Positive Global Cues and Shutdown Deal Lift Indian Markets Today?
Global Developments
The US Senate has successfully passed a bipartisan deal to end the prolonged government shutdown, funding operations until January 30. The agreement includes a provision for a December vote on the Affordable Care Act Bill and reverses the recent federal staff terminations. The resolution also ensures continued food stamp funding through FY2026.
Adding a fiscal boost, President Trump has proposed a $2,000-per-person tariff bonus, potentially stimulating consumer spending and providing short-term economic relief. The conclusion of the shutdown is expected to unlock delayed macroeconomic data releases such as CPI and employment reports.
Global Market Overview
- US Futures: Trading in the green, reflecting optimism after the shutdown resolution.
- Asian Markets: Opened higher, supported by positive macro data from China and easing risk aversion.
- China: CPI rose 0.2% YoY (vs est. 0.0%) while WPI declined 2.1% YoY (vs -2.2% expected), suggesting early inflation stability.
- Brent Crude: Steady near $64 per barrel ahead of key OPEC and IEA reports this week.
- Gold: Hovering near $4,050/oz due to sustained central bank and ETF demand.
- GIFT Nifty: Indicates a flat-to-positive start for Indian equities, tracking global strength.
Markets across the Asia-Pacific region rebounded following last week’s AI-led sell-off. China’s inflation recovery is offering a stabilizing signal, with the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei both up in early trade.
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Indian Market Snapshot
- Nifty: Closed above 25,500 for the second time this week.
- Nifty Bank: Witnessed mild correction after a recent rally.
- Broader Indices: Midcap and Smallcap segments underperformed largecaps.
- FII Trend: Foreign Institutional Investors turned net buyers after five sessions of selling, though FII short positions have increased to 87%.
- India FTAs: Ongoing free trade negotiations continue; US trade deal remains pending.
- Lenskart Listing: Debuts today; grey market premium has turned negative after earlier 25% premium.
Stocks to Watch
| Category | Stock | Update |
|---|---|---|
| Positive | Sugar Stocks | Centre allows 1.5 MT sugar exports for FY26 |
| Ashoka Buildcon | Receives ₹539 Cr order from Railways | |
| Lupin | Pune research centre gets nil USFDA observations | |
| EasyTrip | Plans to raise ₹514 Cr via preferential shares | |
| Havells | Signs settlement pact with HPL group | |
| HAL | Supply agreement with GE for aircraft engines | |
| Zydus Life | USFDA approval for new cancer treatment drug | |
| Ram Ratna Wires | Approved under Rajasthan Investment Promotion Scheme | |
| Negative | Ola Electric | Clarification on tech leak reports deemed false |
| Swiggy | Board approves ₹10,000 Cr fundraise via QIP | |
| India Cements | Ultratech sells 30 lakh shares in open market | |
| Biocon | Receives two observations from USFDA |
Opportunities & Threats
💡 Opportunities
- Shutdown resolution may lift risk sentiment globally.
- PSU banks and capital market stocks remain strong on liquidity flows.
- Improved Chinese macro data supports emerging markets momentum.
📉 Threats
- FII shorts near 87% raise caution for high-beta sectors.
- IT and Consumption stocks remain weak post results.
- Lenskart listing volatility may trigger short-term pressure on new-age tech names.
Valuation & Investment View
- Short-term: Stable with positive bias supported by global relief rally.
- Medium-term: Consolidation likely around 25,500–25,800 levels.
- Long-term: Bullish, driven by capital flows and policy visibility.
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Investor Takeaway
Indian-Share-Tips.com Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, observes that the resolution of the US shutdown, stronger China data, and improving FII sentiment are collectively setting the stage for near-term stability. However, select consumption and metal stocks may remain weak. Explore more detailed insights at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
Related Queries on Market Outlook
- How will the end of the US shutdown impact Indian equities?
- Which sectors are likely to benefit from improved risk appetite?
- Can PSU Banks outperform broader indices this week?
- What impact will Lenskart’s listing have on new-age tech valuations?
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
