Is Macquarie Right About Nifty Heading Toward 30,000 by 2026?
About the Forecast
Macquarie has revised its medium-term stance on India, stating that the risk-reward setup has meaningfully improved. The brokerage believes that Nifty is now more likely to approach 30,000 by 2026 than correct toward 20,000.
The tone shift comes after months of conservative positioning where the firm expected consolidation. Improving earnings visibility, domestic liquidity and an upcycle in consumption are shaping a constructive backdrop.
During shifting macro cycles, some traders prefer structured execution frameworks such as a systematic Nifty F&O Tip approach to balance sentiment momentum with disciplined risk.
Key Highlights
🔹 Risk-reward seen shifting positive after cautious 2025 tone
🔹 Expectation of stronger earnings momentum and demand recovery
🔹 Foreign fund flows likely to revive as global uncertainty softens
🔹 Potential for sector rotation—consumption, banking, capital goods
🔹 Theme: “India in 2026 — Coming out of hibernation”
Macquarie emphasises improving participation breadth and sector leadership rotation after a narrow 2024 rally.
Peer Brokerage Alignment
| Firm | Nifty Outlook | Tone |
|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | Toward 30,000 in 2026 | Positive |
| JPMorgan | 30,000 Base Case | Bullish |
| Jefferies | Selective Bullish | Constructive |
Macro resilience, ongoing reforms and earnings clarity are being flagged as the core drivers supporting valuations.
|
Strengths 🔹 Strong earnings tailwinds 🔹 Broadening participation 🔹 Improving consumer momentum |
Weaknesses 🔹 Elevated valuations vs global peers 🔹 Liquidity–driven volatility risk 🔹 Global geopolitical overhangs |
The market may still witness periodic pullbacks, but tone suggests dips could attract incremental accumulation.
|
Opportunities 🔹 Revival in consumer discretionary 🔹 Banking and capital goods leadership 🔹 Sector rotation into cyclicals |
Threats 🔹 Policy pace slowdown risk 🔹 Elevated global yields 🔹 Supply-side shocks |
Macquarie frames the next leg as a transition from defensive accumulation to active risk-taking as the macro backdrop improves.
Valuation & Investment View
Valuations remain elevated, but improving earnings visibility, domestic flows and favourable structural catalysts support a constructive stance. Execution models in trending markets often align well with a rule-based approach such as a rotational BankNifty F&O Tip.
Investor Takeaway: Macquarie’s tone shift highlights improving confidence in India’s multi-year cycle. Dip accumulation remains the theme. — Analysis compiled by Derivative Pro & Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, available at Indian-Share-Tips.com.
Related Queries on Nifty and Global Outlook
• Will Nifty touch 30,000?
• Will FIIs return?
• Which sectors lead the rally?
• Is India still overvalued?
• Should investors buy dips?
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
