Is India Still Attractive for Global Investors as Morgan Stanley Flags Earnings Acceleration?
About the Update
Jonathan Garner from Morgan Stanley has highlighted a structural shift in India’s equity positioning within emerging markets. India has outperformed global peers for four consecutive years since 2021, supported by strong institutional flows, policy reform momentum, and consistent economic growth visibility.
However, valuations have moderated meaningfully — moving from 1 standard deviation above EM peers to almost 1 deviation below, creating a more balanced entry zone for long-term investors.
During such evolving macro setups, traders often rely on structured levels and execution models — many prefer setups aligned with a tactical Nifty Option Call entry rather than emotional decision-making.
Key Highlights
🔹 India has outperformed Emerging Markets for four straight years
🔹 Valuation gap has normalised, improving entry attractiveness
🔹 Nominal GDP growth temporarily slowed vs expectations
🔹 Earnings growth expected to recover from 7% to mid-teens in 2026
This highlights a shift from purely valuation-driven debates toward earnings-led momentum — an important marker for medium-term investing confidence.
Peer Market Snapshot
| Region | Recent Performance | Earnings Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| India | Strong | Improving |
| China | Volatile | Moderate |
| APAC EM | Mixed | Stable |
Normalisation of valuation premiums, combined with fundamental strength, suggests rotational inflows may resume once global macro volatility stabilises.
|
Strengths 🔹 Consistent domestic liquidity 🔹 Policy continuity and reforms 🔹 Leadership within EM basket |
Weaknesses 🔹 Short-term GDP slowdown 🔹 Rich valuations vs history 🔹 Higher sensitivity to inflows |
Medium-term sentiment remains constructive, though investors may continue to monitor macro trigger confirmation before aggressive re-entry.
|
Opportunities 🔹 FIIs may return as earnings support valuations 🔹 Domestic demand cycle stabilising 🔹 Strength in premium sectors (BFSI, industrials) |
Threats 🔹 Global rate volatility 🔹 Geopolitical disruptions 🔹 Currency-driven market sensitivity |
Garner’s comments reinforce the idea that India may be entering the next leg of a structural earnings-upcycle rather than speculative momentum.
Valuation & Investment View
With valuations normalising and earnings expected to accelerate into mid-teens next fiscal, India remains one of the strongest positioned markets in the EM universe. Allocations may increase from both long-only and rotational macro funds as stability improves.
Execution-aligned traders may prefer a phased entry strategy supported by signals similar to a BankNifty Option Call on confirmation breakouts rather than early anticipation-based positions.
Derivative Pro & Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, notes that disciplined accumulation continues to outperform aggressive top-heavy chasing. New highs may come, but correction-absorbing entries tend to deliver better risk-adjusted returns in long cycles.
Read more insights and expert-led analysis at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
Related Queries on Morgan Stanley and Indian Markets
• Will India continue outperforming Emerging Markets?
• Is now a good time to invest in Nifty and Sensex?
• How will earnings growth affect FY26 valuations?
• Are FIIs expected to return to Indian equities?
• Which sectors may lead the next market cycle?
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
