Can Groww’s FY26 Guidance on MTF and User Growth Drive a Fintech Inflection Point?
About Groww’s Guidance and Strategic Focus
Groww has outlined a focused guidance for FY26 centred on scaling its Margin Trading Facility (MTF), increasing its user base and delivering meaningful revenue growth. With its MTF market share currently at around 1.7 %, Groww is prioritising this high-potential segment as part of its monetisation framework. The company targets double-digit growth in MTF, user base expansion of 15-20 % YoY, and revenue growth of 25-30 % on a full-year basis. Despite a weaker H1, the company is confident of a positive full-year revenue outcome.This guidance reflects a conscious pivot from standard brokerage models toward more leverage-based monetisation and broader financial-product engagement. As India’s retail investing base matures, margins from traditional broking compress — shifting to MTF, lending, wealth and advisory becomes essential for sustainable growth. Groww’s roadmap aligns with this transition.
In analysing this guidance, it is crucial to recognise the structural underpinnings: MTF represents a recurring interest revenue stream, higher yield per user and a longer engagement lifecycle. User-base growth ensures scale and cross-product adoption. Combined, these generate operating leverage, self-reinforcing engagement loops and enhance valuation potential.
Key Guidance-Driven Highlights
🔹 Focus on scaling MTF from ~1.7 % market share toward double-digit share.
🔹 Revenue growth target of 25-30 % year-on-year for FY26.
🔹 User‐base expansion envisaged at 15-20 % YoY.
🔹 The MTF book in Q2 FY26 crossed ₹1,668 crore with ~78,000 active users — showing early traction.
🔹 Despite H1 degrowth, full‐year revenue outlook remains positive.
🔹 Shift in revenue mix away from derivatives to higher‐yield segments (MTF, interest income, wealth).
When a fintech platform signals meaningful guidance amid regulatory headwinds and margin pressure, two aspects matter most: execution clarity and monetisation shift. Groww’s guidance ticks both boxes — a clear metric (MTF share) and a monetisation pivot (from volume to value).
For traders and long-term investors alike, this theme aligns with actionable setups. Explore our strategic signals via the Nifty Tip module to position effectively during such inflection phases.
Peer Comparison Snapshot
| Company | Focus Area | Strategic Differentiator |
|---|---|---|
| Groww | Retail investing platform + MTF | Pivot to high‐yield products, clear FY26 guidance |
| Zerodha (unlisted) | Brokerage & technology stack | Large base, but slower product monetisation |
| Angel One | Brokerage + credit products | Credit monetisation earlier stage |
Growing the user base alone is no longer sufficient — monetisation per user defines value creation. By guiding for MTF growth and revenue acceleration, Groww is signalling it has moved beyond user accumulation to value realisation.
Strengths🔹 Clear guidance for FY26 with quantitative targets. 🔹 Growing MTF book from ₹1,035 cr → ₹1,668 cr within short span of Q1–Q2. 🔹 Strong brand in retail investing, enabling cross‐sell. 🔹 Low fixed cost model means incremental revenues drop to bottom line. |
Weaknesses🔹 MTF is credit‐leveraged and requires strong risk controls. 🔹 User growth is entering a mature phase; 15-20 % may be difficult if broader market softens. 🔹 Revenue guide assumes turnaround after H1 degrowth — execution risk remains. 🔹 Regulatory overhang in margin lending / broking persists. |
Scaling MTF requires deeper user engagement, credit infrastructure, and tighter risk management. But if executed cleanly, it shifts the business model from flat fee brokerage toward higher‐yield financial services.
Opportunities🔹 MTF penetration in India is nascent — large runway ahead. 🔹 Diversification into wealth management, commodities bolsters growth levers. 🔹 Rising retail investing base in India supports user growth. 🔹 Shift to value monetisation improves margins and valuation multiple. |
ThreatsRegulatory Restrictions and threat from Angelone etc |
🔹 Credit losses or volatility in MTF book could damage profitability.
🔹 Competitive pricing pressure from zero‐fee platforms.
🔹 Derivatives revenue remains under pressure from regulatory actions.
🔹 Execution delay in product rolls could hamper FY26 guidance delivery.
From a valuation perspective, if Groww executes on its guidance, we should expect re‐rating as the business moves from growth at all costs to profitable scale with higher yield products. Investors may view this as a medium-term compounding story rather than a short-term trade.
Valuation & Investment View
Groww’s FY26 guidance places earnings clarity ahead of mere user‐growth headlines. With user base growth of 15-20 % and revenue growth of 25-30 %, if the MTF business scales past a critical mass, the revenue per user curve may steepen significantly. The market tends to reward fintech companies when monetisation inflection points become visible rather than speculative. Therefore, for long‐term investors, Groww may shift from being “fast-growing but unprofitable” to “profitable growth at scale.”For tactical investors, keeping watch on quarterly disclosures for MTF book size, active users, average order value, and risk metrics will be key. To access more structured guidance and trading setups aligned with financial services themes, our advanced modules in the BankNifty setup provide value.
Investor Takeaway With Gulshan Khera
Derivative Pro & Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, emphasises that Groww’s shift toward MTF scaling and higher‐yield monetisation is a landmark transition for the platform. He advises investors to view this as a multi‐year journey where execution visibility and risk management matter far more than headline user growth. Aligning allocations toward platforms with clear product depth, monetisation clarity and platform stickiness — rather than pure volume growth — is the hallmark of next-gen fintech investing. Readers may access further research and insights at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
