Why Is Macquarie Turning Positive on Adani Green After Recent Profit Booking?
Macquarie’s latest research note on Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) indicates a renewed positive stance on the stock following a brief spell of profit booking. The brokerage highlights that current levels offer a good entry opportunity as multiple overhangs — including concerns linked to the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) and the whistleblower issue — have now largely subsided. With capacity additions gaining momentum and promoter infusion completed, the stock’s medium-term growth story remains intact.
The note emphasizes that once the ongoing U.S.–India trade deal nears finalization, any residual apprehensions over the DoJ inquiry are expected to fade temporarily. This development, combined with structural growth in India’s renewable energy demand, sets the stage for a recovery phase in Adani Green’s valuation multiples.
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Profit Booking Creates Fresh Entry Window
After an extended uptrend over the past year, Adani Green’s shares witnessed a phase of profit booking by institutional investors. Macquarie believes this correction has improved the stock’s risk–reward balance, making it an attractive buy for medium-term investors. According to the brokerage, the company’s fundamentals remain robust, backed by accelerating project execution, improved governance visibility, and strong promoter commitment.
The completion of the promoter’s warrant infusion in the previous quarter signals financial stability and ensures sufficient equity support for ongoing expansion projects. This development also helps in reducing leverage — a critical metric watched by long-term investors in the renewable sector.
Capacity Expansion and Utilisation Outlook
Macquarie expects higher capacity additions in the second half of FY26 as weather conditions improve across project locations. The Khavda super site, in particular, remains a key growth engine with incremental generation expected to lift blended utilization rates over time.
The company’s strategic focus on solar–wind hybrid configurations allows better capacity utilization, diversifies output risk, and ensures higher plant load factors (PLF) relative to pure-play solar peers.
Here’s how Adani Green stacks up against peers on key operational and valuation metrics, according to Macquarie’s estimates:
| Metric | Adani Green | Peer Average (ReNew, Tata Power) |
|---|---|---|
| Installed Capacity (GW) | 10.9 | 8.1 |
| Target Capacity by FY30 (GW) | 45 | 25–30 |
| 2Y Forward EV/EBITDA (x) | 13 | 15–17 |
| EBITDA CAGR (5 Years) | 25%+ | 15–18% |
| Leverage Ratio Trend | Improving | Stable |
Clearing Regulatory and Perception Overhangs
Macquarie highlights that key perception overhangs related to the Adani Group have now been addressed. The earlier whistleblower-linked concerns, which weighed on investor sentiment, have faded with no material findings impacting AGEL. The completion of the promoter warrant infusion also demonstrates strong internal funding commitment.
Additionally, the nearing U.S.–India trade deal is expected to ease tensions around potential scrutiny by U.S. authorities. This indirectly alleviates the DoJ-linked uncertainty surrounding some Adani entities, providing medium-term comfort to global investors.
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Valuation and Outlook
At a current 2-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple of around 13x, Adani Green trades at a slight discount to its long-term average, offering valuation comfort relative to peers. Macquarie projects an EBITDA CAGR of over 25% over the next five years, driven by robust execution at the Khavda super site and consistent project monetization.
The firm also anticipates improving leverage ratios as new capacity starts generating cash flows, thereby reducing debt-to-equity levels. This improvement in balance sheet strength could re-rate the stock over the medium term, especially if tariff realizations remain stable and project commissioning stays on schedule.
While near-term volatility in global renewables and energy transition policy remains a risk, AGEL’s leadership position, execution capability, and visibility on new projects keep the long-term investment thesis attractive.
Investor Takeaway
Indian-Share-Tips.com Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, who is also a SEBI Regd Investment Adviser, observes that Macquarie’s positive stance signals institutional confidence returning to the renewable space. With regulatory clarity, improving leverage, and continued promoter support, Adani Green’s long-term growth narrative remains strong. Investors looking for exposure to India’s clean energy transformation may consider gradual accumulation on dips.
Discover more renewable sector insights and analytical guidance at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
Related Queries on Renewable Energy Investments
- What Does Macquarie’s Positive View Mean for Adani Green’s Valuation?
- How Is the Khavda Super Site Transforming India’s Renewable Landscape?
- Will Promoter Infusion Strengthen Adani Green’s Balance Sheet?
- Should Investors Buy Adani Green After Recent Corrections?
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
