Why Copper Prices Are Expected To Stay Range-Bound Through 2025 Despite Strong Demand Prospects
Analysts expect copper prices to remain range-bound for the rest of 2025, anchored around $10,000 per tonne. The red metal is witnessing a tug-of-war between supply shortages and mixed near-term demand. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by global infrastructure, electric vehicles, and clean energy investments.
As of now, the three-month contract for copper trades near $10,806 per tonne, while spot prices hover around $10,797 per tonne. Experts believe that while prices may not surge sharply, supply disruptions and strong macro tailwinds will prevent any steep decline.
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Price Forecast and Market Dynamics
According to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, copper will likely average $9,650 per tonne in 2025, higher than $9,500 in 2024. The upward revision reflects tighter inventories and a steady outlook for industrial metal demand. ING Think adds that any improvement in trade activity and monetary policy easing in the US may support prices through 2026.
Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) projects copper to average $10,190 per tonne by 2027, as the global economy rebounds and investments in clean energy accelerate. Supply constraints from large mines such as Indonesia’s Grasberg and Chile’s Escondida are expected to keep inventories tight.
| Year | Refined Copper Production (Mn Tonnes) | Average Price ($/Tonne) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27.47 | 9,414 |
| 2025* | 28.12 | 9,554 |
| 2026* | 28.70 | 9,763 |
*Projections by AOCE and ING Think
The global copper market continues to adjust to post-pandemic industrial demand, with China and the US remaining the two key consumption drivers. Analysts point to a resilient performance from the US economy, job growth, and foreign investment flows boosting near-term demand. The AOCE expects global copper inventories to drop by around 8% in 2025 due to mining disruptions and higher consumption.
Inventory Trends and Supply Disruptions
The latest AOCE data indicates that global copper inventories declined 8.1% in the first half of 2025. The London Metal Exchange (LME) and COMEX reported inventory drawdowns amid steady demand from renewable energy projects and EV manufacturing. BMI notes that supply disruptions, including Freeport’s force majeure declaration at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, could further tighten global supply.
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Key Drivers Affecting Prices
Global copper trends hinge on three critical factors — supply chain stability, demand from green industries, and geopolitical risks.
- Supply Shortages: New mine development remains slow, and export curbs by China on rare earths and metals add uncertainty to copper’s near-term availability.
- Demand Drivers: Expanding EV production, renewable power installations, and urban infrastructure upgrades continue to underpin long-term copper demand.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Trade friction between China and the US is likely to create short-term volatility in pricing and inventory management.
Long-Term Outlook
Both BMI and ING Think project that copper’s long-term fundamentals remain bullish. Prices are expected to average $10,100 per tonne between 2025 and 2029. The combination of electric vehicle adoption, data centre expansion, and renewable grid investments will ensure continued demand growth through the decade.
Investor Takeaway
Indian-Share-Tips.com Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, who is also a SEBI Regd Investment Adviser, believes copper’s near-term range-bound pattern provides accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. While geopolitical and supply challenges cap immediate upside, the structural demand from EVs and green energy sectors offers multi-year growth visibility.
Explore more macro insights and investment strategies at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
Related Queries On Copper Price Outlook
- Why are copper prices expected to remain range-bound in 2025?
- How will EV and renewable demand impact copper in 2026?
- Which global factors could push copper above $10,000 per tonne?
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
