Why Are Bulls Struggling With Lower Highs And Lows Before Monthly Expiry?
The Indian equity market has entered a fragile phase as the Nifty 50 continues to struggle near the 24,600 mark. Despite intraday recoveries, the index has been unable to hold on to gains, extending its losing streak for the sixth consecutive session. This decline comes just before the monthly expiry, adding further pressure on market participants who remain cautious ahead of critical triggers like the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy review.
About the Current Market Setup
The Nifty 50 closed above 24,600 after a volatile session, where it briefly attempted a recovery of around 30 points. However, the inability to sustain momentum highlights the growing challenge for bulls. With global cues uncertain and domestic triggers like RBI’s stance on interest rates, liquidity, and inflation weighing heavily, traders are closely monitoring the next move.
• Nifty 50 has fallen for six straight sessions.
• Minor intraday recovery of 30 points.
• Closed above 24,600 after volatile trade.
• Market cautious ahead of RBI monetary policy.
• Critical defense level seen at 24,604.
Numerical Recap of Market Trends
The past week has been dominated by continuous selling pressure, where both foreign and domestic institutional investors remained cautious. The numbers reflect weakening momentum.
| Session Streak | Intraday Movement | Closing Level | Key Support |
| 6 days of losses | +30 points recovery | 24,600+ | 24,604 |
Market Caution Before RBI Policy
The RBI policy is expected to provide critical direction. While inflationary pressures are easing slightly, the central bank remains concerned about external risks and global uncertainty. Traders anticipate that RBI may maintain its current stance, but the commentary around growth, liquidity, and interest rate outlook will be crucial. Any hint of policy tightening could add pressure to the already fragile sentiment.
• Inflation outlook and food prices.
• Stance on liquidity and banking sector stability.
• Guidance on growth momentum.
• External risks from global monetary trends.
Technical View on Nifty 50
On the charts, Nifty continues to post lower highs and lower lows, a sign of weakness in short-term momentum. The immediate support remains near 24,600, while resistance lies around 24,900–25,000. A breach below the support could accelerate selling pressure, while a recovery above resistance may indicate stabilization.
Support Zone: 24,600 – 24,604
Resistance Zone: 24,900 – 25,000
Trend: Lower highs, lower lows (weakness persists)
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Investor Sentiment and FII/DII Trends
Investor sentiment has been under pressure due to continued selling by FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors). While DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) have attempted to provide support, the overall mood remains cautious. With expiry approaching, volatility is likely to stay elevated.
• FII selling pressure across large caps.
• DII buying but not enough to offset selling.
• Expiry-driven volatility adding pressure.
• Global cues remain mixed.
Outlook for the Coming Week
The market will take cues from RBI’s monetary policy outcome, expiry-related positioning, and global macro trends. Traders should prepare for volatility and use dips strategically. A cautious approach remains advisable until clarity emerges on policy direction and global risk factors.
• High volatility expected due to expiry.
• RBI policy may guide next trend.
• Support at 24,600 is critical.
• Sector rotation likely post-policy announcement.
Investor Takeaway
Nifty’s six-day losing streak highlights growing caution among market participants. RBI’s monetary policy and expiry are the immediate triggers that will define near-term direction. Investors should monitor support levels closely and avoid aggressive positioning until clarity emerges. For deeper analysis and timely updates, you can always explore more insights at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
