How plausible is the theory that US interventions follow the 11-year solar (sunspot) cycle?
Quick summary
The chart circulating online overlays historical sunspot-number cycles with dates of major U.S. military interventions in the Middle East. Superficial alignment exists at a few points, but correlation ≠ causation. Below is a short, practical analysis and key takeaways for readers.
Key takeaways
- Visual overlap is suggestive but not proof: Peaks in solar activity and some intervention dates fall near each other — coincidence and selective labeling can create apparent patterns.
- No known causal mechanism: There is no credible political science or historical theory linking human strategic decision timing to solar cycles.
- Multiple confounders: Geopolitical triggers, resource markets, domestic politics, and technological readiness better explain intervention timing than an astronomical cycle.
- Watch for selection bias: The chart highlights a few episodes and omits many other conflicts or quiet periods that would weaken any neat pattern.
Short technical notes (what to check if you want to test the claim)
- Define events precisely: pick objective start dates (e.g., troop deployment, declared operations) for interventions and test against sunspot peak years.
- Use statistical tests: compute correlation of event timing with sunspot cycle phase, then assess statistical significance (accounting for multiple comparisons).
- Control for confounders: include variables such as oil price shocks, elections, terrorism incidents, regional crises and international legal triggers.
- Check robustness: vary event definitions and time-windows (e.g., ±1 year around sunspot peaks) to see if the association
Practical conclusion for readers
The image makes for an interesting meme and a conversation-starter, but it should not be treated as evidence. If you want to pursue this seriously, do a reproducible event-based study with clear definitions and controls. Until then, treat the claim as speculative and likely coincidental.
Tags: geopolitics, data-analysis, solar-cycle, critical-thinking
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Written by Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services
Written by Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services
