Wholesale Outlook (Aug)

Nuvama expects mixed wholesale performance in August. Tractors, 2-wheelers (2Ws) and commercial vehicles (CVs) are likely to continue their year-on-year upward momentum, while passenger vehicles (PVs) may see a marginal decline.

Drivers Behind Segment Trends

Tractors & 2Ws: Growth supported by positive rural sentiment.
CVs: Supported by a favourable base and improved execution of infrastructure projects.
PVs: Marginal decrease expected as some buyers postpone purchases ahead of likely GST cuts.

Company-Level Leaders

In 2Ws, EIM-RE and TVS are expected to outpace peers. Among tractors and PVs, Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) is forecast to outperform peers.

Medium-Term View (FY25–27E)

Nuvama expects tractors, SUVs and 2Ws to register high single-digit CAGR over FY25–27E, outpacing CVs.

Top Picks

Nuvama’s preferred picks: Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motors, and Motherson Wiring.

Analyst Inputs — Quick Take

• The mix of rural demand and infrastructure execution supports cyclical strength in tractors, 2Ws and CVs.
• PV weakness looks tactical and linked to GST timing; monitor policy announcements for a clearer trigger.
• Stock selection should favour companies with strong product cycles (MM, TVS) and component suppliers exposed to scale (Motherson Wiring).

Source: Nuvama (Src-Nuvama)

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