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MOTILAL OSWAL ON JSW STEEL

MOTILAL OSWAL ON JSW STEEL

Target price ₹1,200 vs ₹1,180 earlier (maintaining Buy)

In-line operating performance outlook bright

Consolidated revenue of ₹43,200cr (flat YoY and -4% QoQ), in line with estimate as healthy NSR was offset by weak QoQ volume growth

Steel sales volumes stood at 6.69mt (+9% YoY and -11% QoQ), impacted by planned shutdowns at Dolvi and BPSL

EBITDA stood in line with estimate at ₹7,589cr (+38% YoY and +19% QoQ), driven by better NSR and lower coking coal costs

EBITDA/t improved to ₹11,324/t in Q1FY26, up 26% YoY and 33% QoQ (vs estimate of ₹10,440/t)

APAT stood at ₹2,180cr (+159% YoY and +43% QoQ), aided by improved operating profitability

Consolidated crude steel production stood at 7.26mt (+14% YoY and -5% QoQ), impacted by planned maintenance shutdowns

Expect double-digit revenue growth in FY26/FY27 driven by capacity ramp-up and price recovery

EBITDA margin likely to rebound to 18-19% in FY26/FY27 on back of domestic steel price recovery led by safeguard duty

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