Has American Market Reached its Peak?

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GREED & FEAR

Believes America reached an all-time peak of 67.2% of the MSCI All Country World Index in December, which is now reversing

A share of 67% is huge, given America accounts for only 26.4% of the world economy in terms of nominal GDP

This suggests the US dollar has entered a long-term downtrend

Several reasons for a weaker dollar:

Donald Trump himself wants a weaker dollar

Highly personalized nature of Trump's governing style, resulting in unpredictability

America's extreme fiscal deterioration post-Covid

Moody's sovereign downgrade has not significantly moved markets, as S&P and Fitch had already downgraded

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