UBS on Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL)

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UBS ON HAL
Maintain Buy Rating and Revise TP from Rs 4800 to Rs 5440

Ended FY25 with strong beat on orders, revenue acceleration ahead

Cabinet committee has cleared order for 156 Prachand order to HNAL.

Awarding of this order is a positive surprise to us both in terms of value at Rs627bn vs our expectation of Rs 450 bn and in terms of timing we were expecting this order to be awarded in Q1FY26

LCH prachand is expected to have a 65% indigenous content further strengthening domestic ecosystem for defence manufacturing

Revise up  Tejas execution estimates from 4 in FY26 to 7 and 14 in FY27 vs 6 earlier, driving upward revision in revenue and earnings for FY26/27E by 3%/3% and 3%/3% respectively.

Expect FY26 to be an inflection year for defence ordering and
recent acceleration in pace of decision making adds further comfort

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