Let us have insight on Ukraine Crisis which is dominating Geo Politics since 3 months, taking the world to brinks of 3rd World War.
Let's first start with Why is Ukraine important? And Why does Ukraine matter?
Ukraine is one of the biggest countries in Europe on territorial basis with 41 million highly educated people strongly motivated to work.
But that's not all.
How Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in recoverable reserves of Uranium Ores
2nd in Europe & 10th in World in Titanium Ore reserves
2nd in World in Manganese Ores Reserves (2.3 billion tons or 12% of world's reserves)
2nd largest Iron Ore reserves in world(30 billion tons)
2nd in Europe in Mercury Ore reserves.
3rd in Europe & 13th in World in Shale Gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in world in total value of natural resources & 7th in World in Coal Reserves(33.9 billion tons)
Enough for Putin to set an eye on Ukraine?
Ukraine is an agricultural country:
1st in Europe wrt Arable land area.
3rd in world by the area of Black Soil (25% of world's volume)
1st in world in exports of Sunflower & Sunflower Oil.
2nd in world in Barley production & 4th in Barley Exports.
9th place in world in production of Chicken Eggs.
16th in world in Cheese Exports.
Ukraine can meet food needs of 600 million people across World.
Can you imagine what boost it can give to Russian Economy?
3rd largest producer & 4th largest Exporter of Corn in world.
4th largest producer of Potatoes in World.
5th largest Rye Producer in World.
5th in World in Bee production (75,000 tons)
8th in World in Wheat Exports.
Ukraine is Highly Industrialized.
1st in Europe in Ammonia Production
2nd in Europe & 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in World (142.5 bln cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU)
3rd in Europe & 8th in World in installed nuclear power plants capacity
3rd in World (after U.S. & France) in production of Locators & Locating equipments
3rd largest Iron Exporter in World
4th largest exporter of Turbines for nuclear power plants in World.
4th World's largest Rocket Launchers producer
4th in World in Clay Exports.
4th in World in Titanium Exports.
8th in World in Ores & Concentrates Exports.
9th in World in Defence industry products.
10th largest Steel Producer in world (32.4 million tons).
Huff!!! That's Ukraine. Putin's Passion.
So...How did Putin play the game?
Started with Putin fuelling civil protests in regions of Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) & Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) in 2013
Huge demand flared up in those regions,especially in Donbas, to join Russia by breaking away from Ukraine
Ukrainian Govt made biggest mistake of using force against Peaceful Protestors &....that's what Putin Wanted. Criticising the "Suppression of Citizens Freedom" he struck unexpectedly...Crimea
Putin got Crimea annexed to Russia on 20 Feb 14,leaving Ukraine,US, EU in shock
Do you realise now why PM Modi didn't use force against "So Called" Farmers during Nautanki Protests? He didn't want Punjab see bloodshed as was planned by ISI sponsored Khalistanis. He didn't allow Punjab to be Bharat's Crimea.
Let's come back to Ukraine
US, NATO, EU staged strong protests against annexure of Crimea. Sanctions were imposed on Russia. Putin didn't budge. Instead..his agencies intensified civil protests in DPR & LPR.
Finally....Ukraine had to come down to table for negotiations.
After extensive talks in Minsk (Belarus),an agreement to end war in Donbas was signed by representatives of Trilateral Contact Group (Russia, Ukraine & EU's OSCE) &...without recognition of any status,by heads of DPR & LPR.
Mediation done by Germany & France.
Putin "GOT" DPR & LPR as signatories to Minsk Agreement IN SPITE of they being in Ukraine....thereby making Ukraine & EU agree those to be disputed areas i.e."Not Integrated" parts of Ukraine.
Resemblance with Kashmir? Why Kashmir wasn't made "Integrated Part" of Bharat?
Now...since 2021...Putin again activated his groups in DPR & LPR to start civil war to break away from Ukraine. But now,he also deployed around 1.30 Lakh military on Ukraine Border. He deployed military troops in neighbouring Belarus too under pretext of Military Drills.
Ukraine wants to become member of NATO & Putin used this exact reason to mount military pressure saying NATO accepting Ukraine as member will endanger Russian Safety & Sovereignty.
US & NATO got in Panic Mode & started flexing muscles
Did it deter Putin? Absolutely Not.
Hectic Parley of talks started between US+NATO & Russia.Putin continued with his tough stand that Ukraine must follow Minsk Agreement & NATO mustn't admit Ukraine as member
Slowly cracks started developing among NATO allies with France & Germany taking stand against NATO.
So...what was exactly happening among NATO allies? Why was US pressing so much for Sanctions against Russia using Ukraine Crisis as a reason for it?
For this....you need to understand EU's position wrt Gas Supply.
Natural Gas by the numbers:
Russia exports 23.3 billion cubic feet per day(72% to Europe)
US exports 9.6 billion cubic feet per day
Russian gas to Europe costs as little as $270 per 1000 cubic feet (Germany)
US gas is sold at market prices, $1000+ per 1000 cubic feet
In short, US does not produce enough natural gas anywhere near to fill any void left by Russia and sells at prices up 4 times higher than Russia.
For Europe,which is already in the midst of an energy crisis, consequences of sanctioning Russian gas would be catastrophic.
So..US pressing for sanctions on Russia(PRETEXT of Ukraine) is understandable.
But couldn't' EU member countries of NATO see this? Why were they still falling in US trap?
Due to "Lobby" led by Communist George Soros!!
Arms,Oil & Pharma Lobby which wants to control world.
"Lobby" wants to push world into a War since last 4 yrs which wasn't allowed by Trump. But NOW US President Biden is just a "Pappu" in it's hands. In fact..every US President was EXCEPT Trump.
Germany kept doing flipflop over Sanctions proposed by Biden. So did France....to isolate UK. Rest NATO members were forced to sit like sitting duck watching developments & frustration of Biden who was trying his level best to push Ukraine into war against Russia.
But Putin is Smart. He used EU's dependency on Russian Gas to his advantage.
Finally Germany & France put their best foot forward to declare that Ukraine CAN'T be made NATO member. This was last straw on camel's back. President Biden was shocked & had to declare that US won't be sending troops to take active part in case of Russia-Ukraine War.
UK & other NATO allies had to follow pursuit and declared that they will only SELL Military Requirements to Ukraine, but won't send troops.
In short..Ukraine was isolated & realised that it has to fight war entirely on it's own which was impossible against Mighty Russia.
Still...Biden was trying to threaten Germany & France with Possibility of Russia invading Ukraine by declaring different dates of Russian Attack.
And then came the masterstroke by Putin..
He silently started withdrawing Russian Troops from Ukrainian Border & Belarus.
No one could believe it. Biden still tried to hold ground saying he doesn't believe Russian Withdrawal....Putin was smiling.
What Biden didn't realise was that Putin NEVER WANTED TO ATTACK Ukraine.
That wasn't the plan at all. Then what was Plan?
To test waters with NATO. Perfectly done.
Result :
1. US+NATO became laughing stock
2. It was again proved that US & NATO are not trustworthy allies
3. Cracks in NATO Split wide open
4. Putin improved opened doors to Russian Troops in Cuba & Venezuela (backyard of US)
Most importantly..
5. Putin opened doors for"Nord Stram 2" project with Germany which was stalled by US since 2020 as Germany was forced by Putin to go against US to meet gas requirements.
THIS is CRUX of Ukraine Conflict. Target was ALWAYS Germany. Ukraine तो बहाना था।
In short....Without firing a single shot, Putin exposed impotence & lack of decision making of US & NATO.
There is 1 more casuality during this game....Turkey President Erdogan who went against NATO & sided with Russia. Today he has lost trust of US & other NATO allies.
It's going to cost Turkey heavy in Syria & in next FATF meeting.
Mind you...Turkey is already put in Grey List by FATF. That means Turkey out of NATO.
China?? I am so laughing out loud. You think that Putin cares for China once he gets hold on Developed Ukraine?
I am not a fool to give you Full Details of Ukrainian Economy in initial part of this thread.
So....Has Ukraine survived?
Don't even think of that. Ukraine HAS TO FALL....but through Civil War from within. Now watch out for massive protests in DPR & LPR in coming days.
BATTLEs are won with tanks & fire.
WARs are won by bringing enemy to knees without firing bullet.
"If Goal can be achieved by non-military methods,even by methods of intrigue,duplicity & fraud,I will go for it. I won't advocate an armed conflict"- Acharya Chanakya.
What about Bharat?
Whose side will Bharat choose? US or Russia?
No-One. Why would we choose any side?
They Both need Bharat. We are at Center & Central Pole doesn't shift.
Bharat is rightly building another axis with Israel, UAE,Saudi & Greece.
#geopolitics!!!
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