Approx 4500 Armoured vehicles are reported to be left behind in Afghanistan. It translates to the following:
312.5 C-17 Aircraft loads (1 C-17 can carry up to 8)
C-17 Requires up to 20,000 pounds or 9100 liters per hour
Flying cost approx 61,500USD per hour of flying
Assuming turnaround of 3 hours for flying to the nearest base will cost
11,34,67,50,000 USD or approx 111.35 Billion USD
This doesn't take into account other associated costs.
Is it best windfall for Taliban? Not exactly
The MPG or KMPL of average Humvee is 4 to 8 MPG or 1.7 to 3.5 km per litre.
Considering some fuel reserves left, after a while Taliban will run out of fuel.
Where will the fuel come from?
Pak and China are not oil producers. Iran is not a friend of the Taliban.
Taliban doesn't have the cash to buy fuel or anything upfront.
For China to help it will have to put in dollar with not an adequate assurance of return, the supposed mineral wealth notwithstanding.
If sanctions are in place it would be nearly impossible to transport fuel or can be easily targeted.
This is just an example of one piece of equipment.
Arms and ammunition were never in short supply in that region so some additional quantities are hardly going to change things.
Can these be sold to the highest bidder?
Yes of course. The largest chunk will come to Pakistan.
Now let's talk about flying machines
The Afghan forces were trained by the Americans using the U.S. military model based on highly technical special reconnaissance units, helicopters, and airstrikes.
US lost superiority to the Taliban when US air support dried up and their ammunition ran out.
Contractors maintained their bombers and attack and transport aircraft throughout the war. By July, most of the 17,000 support contractors had left. A technical issue now meant an aircraft — a Black Hawk helicopter, a C-130 transport, a surveillance drone — would be grounded.
The contractors also took proprietary software and weapons systems with them. They physically removed the US helicopter missile-defense system. Access to the software that they relied on to track US vehicles, weapons, and personnel also disappeared. Real-time intelligence on targets went out the window, too.
The Taliban fought with snipers and improvised explosive devices while the US lost aerial and laser-guided weapon capacity. And since US could not resupply bases without helicopter support, soldiers often lacked the necessary tools to fight. The Taliban overran many bases; in other places, entire units surrendered.
However, let us not forget Pakistan is not in a very good economic situation right now. This additional expenditure (although a lucrative opportunity like buying unwanted stuff because it is on sale) won't make things any easy for Pakistan. Not to forget the running and maintenance cost.
Will this additional equipment alter the conventional power balance with India?
Yes, Very marginally.
Will it increase the risk for Pakistan and China's commercial plans in Afghanistan?
Consider this.
Afghanistan is dependent on aid for even paying salaries. All money parked abroad has been frozen.
It hardly produces anything implying that it will have to buy everything from food to medicine to oil to clothing or any other necessary items.
It has a large unskilled of semi-skilled population with no money and lots of Guns and ammunition.
If China were to step in Uncle SAM'S shoes, it will have to make massive investments with poor prospects for return on investment. Will they do it?
The bottom line, there is a lot it that meets the eye. No need to be jumping like popcorn. Watch the events unfold over the next year. It is going to be exciting.
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