Trump tests positive : Implications on Trump Reelection

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The President will no doubt be keen to dispel a negative narrative around his health. But a mild illness could hurt his chances for re-election for 3 reasons:

1. A Biden presidency and Democratic sweep of Congress has been  increasingly priced-in this week based on prediction markets. That should boost expectations for fiscal stimulus in 2021 and drive US equities higher. 

2. The Oct. 15 debate will have to be rescheduled/canceled. The third debate is scheduled for Oct. 22. Biden beat low expectations in the first debate. Oct. 15 is Trump's chance to close the gap.

3. A 14-day quarantine period would take in scheduled rallies in Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona – all swing states. Missing these meetings will also hinder Trump's chances.

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