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JSW Steel Latest Result Analysis and Implications

JSW Steel - Q1 FY21 (UnAudited –Cons)
CMP: 204

Total revenue from operations 11,782 Cr
19,812 Cr (-40.51%) YoY | 17,887 Cr (-34.91%) QoQ

Year ending revenue: 73,326 Cr Vs. 84,757 Cr (-13.44%)

Net Profit of (582) Cr
1,008 Cr (-157.22%) YoY 188 Cr (-409.51%) QoQ

Year ending Net profit: 3,919 Cr Vs. 11,168 Cr (-64.96%)

EPS (in Rs.) (2.34)
4.25 YoY |0.95 QoQ

Year ending EPS: 16.67 Vs. 25.38

View: Result is declined and below expectation. YoY revenue declined
significantly and company also posted losses in the tune of INR 582 Cr
after a period of Six years.

Business Updates & Highlights:

Q1FY21 EBITDA was around INR 1,341 Cr Vs. 3,716 Cr in Q1FY20 therefore
declined by 63.9% in YoY. EBITDA margin is around 11.3% Vs. 18.7% in YoY.

Standalone performance: Crude steel production in Q1FY21 2.96 Mn tonnes Vs.
4.24 Mn tonnes , Saleable steel sales in Q1FY21 2.80 Mn tonnes Vs. 3.75 Mn
tonnes.

The Company reported Crude Steel Production of 2 .96 Million tonnes, with
average capacity utilization of ~66% for the quarter - as compared to an
average utilization of 46% for the Indian steel industry

Saleable Steel sales for the quarter was 2.80 Million tonnes. While the
decline in India's crude steel production was 41 % QoQ, the Company's crude
steel production declined by 25% QoQ.

The Company achieved a sales volume of 2.80 Million tons and export sales
accounted for 53% of total sales volume.

Subsidiaries' Performance Q1FY21: JSW Steel Coated Products During the
quarter, JSW Steel Coated Products registered a production volume of 0.30
million tons and sales volume of 0.33 million tonnes. Revenue from
operations and Operating EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 2,049 crores
and INR 28 crores respectively. It reported a Net loss after Tax of INR 31
crores for the quarter.

US Plate and Pipe MillSales volumes for the quarter stood at 53,210 net
tonnes of Plates and 4,611 net tonnes of Pipes. It reported an EBITDA Loss
of US$ 11.4 million for the quarter.

JSW Steel USA Ohio Inc. (Acero}Sales volumes for the quarter stood at
48,865 net tonnes. It reported an EBITDA loss of US $12.54 million for the
quarter

JSW Steel (Italy} S.r.l. (Aferpi} The Italy based Rolled long products
manufacturing facility produced 85,131 tonnes and Sold 91,712 tonnes during
the quarter. It reported an EBITDA loss of Euro 7 million for the quarter.

CAPEX UPDATE

The expansion of crude steel capacity at Dolvi works from 5 MTPA to 10 MTPA
along with the Captive Power Plant and Coke Oven Phase 2 is likely to get
commissioned in the second half of FY 2021.

The 8 MTPA Pellet Plant and the Wire Rod Mill at Vijayanagar are expected
to be commissioned in 2Q FY2021. The CRMl complex capacity expansion at
Vijayanagar from 0.85 MTPA to 1.80 MTPA is expected to be commissioned
progressively in 20 and 3Q of FY 2021.

The downstream modernisation cum-capacity enhancement projects at Vasind
and Tarapur and the Colour coating line at Kalmeshwar are expected to be
commissioned in the second half of FY 2021.

During the quarter, the company spent about INR 2,369 crores for capex,
against a total planned capex spend of INR 9,000 crores for FY2021

Odisha Iron Ore Mining Update The Company was declared as the "Preferred
Bidder" for four iron ore mines in the State of Odisha, in the Auctions
held in February 2020, with iron ore reserves of around 1,100 Mn tons. The
Company commenced mining operations at all the above said blocks from 1st
July 2020 and despatches of iron ore have recently started.

Financial
ROE and ROCE is around INR 12.9% and 9% respectively and book value per
share is around INR 150 and share is currently trading at 1.3x of its book
value. Promoter holding is around 43.1% in the company which is good and
stable Promoter has pledged around 35% of their shareholding. FIIs and
mutual fund hold around 15.3% and 2.3% in the company which is reduced by
FIIs by more than 1.7%. The Company's consolidated Net gearing (Net Debt to
Equity) stood at 1.54x at the end of the quarter (as against 1.48x at the
end of 4Q FY2020) and Net Debt to EBITDA stood at 5.74x (as against 4.50x
at the end of 4Q FY2020).

Position: Share support price is INR 180/162. Short term outlook look
bearish. Long term investor based on their risk appetite can continue with
the company.

Share View: Share price high 296 (52 week) and now 204. JSW Steel is one of
the leading integrated steel companies in India with an installed capacity
of 18 MTPA, and has plan to scale up in India. JSW steel's mfg facility at
Vijayanagar, Karnataka is the largest single location steel production
facility in India with a capacity of 12 MTPA.

Opportunities: The IMF expects global GDP to contract by 4.9% in CY2020,
with downside risks, amidst higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty. Global
growth is expected to rebound and increase to 5.4% in CY2021 on the back of
swift policy measures. Lower crude oil prices, a favorable trade balance,
ongoing normal monsoon and stance of the Central bank are the key positives
for the economy. Overall, targeted access to credit and liquidity,
favorable policies, and measure to support global supply chain realignments
are likely to aid steady domestic economy recovery from the second half of
FY21. India crude steel production declined by 41.6% in YoY during the
quarter and finished steel consumption was lower by 55% YoY due to
nationwide lockdown in the month of April and some relaxation in the month
of May. While domestic demand subdued during the Q1FY21, India emerged as a
major steel exporter with export volumes of 5.5 Mn tonnes during the
quarter, implying a 3x increase over the same period last year.

Risk: Increasing consolidated debt in YoY and QoQ and further debt/equity
ratio also increased, promoter holding has also pledged more than 35%.
Expansion is going on slower note now earlier planned for 9K Cr now reduced
to 2.3K Cr. Q2FY21 will also be in the same line and challengeable due to
ongoing current pandemic. Company all subsidiaries business have EBITDA
losses in this quarter and contracted topline also.

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