Crude Oil Update : Week Ending 17 May 20

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Crude oil may witness upside movement as the output cuts combined with the loosening of business restrictions in some U.S. states and cities around the world were expected to ease the global fuel glut and pressure on storage tanks, helping to drive prices up.

Prospects improved for fuel demand as some U.S. states and several countries, including Italy, Spain, Portugal, India and Thailand began allowing some people to go back to work and opened up construction sites, parks, and libraries.

Meanwhile the top two U.S. producers, Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp, each said they would cut output by 400,000 barrels per day this quarter. Crude oil can recover 2100 by taking support near 1500. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in May are expected to drop to about 6 million barrels per day (BPD), the lowest in almost a decade and domestic refining output is likely to fall as the coronavirus crisis hits demand.

Meanwhile Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia has not yet informed customers of impending restrictions on its oil exports, suggesting it is struggling to fully comply with a deal between the OPEC and other producers like Russia to cut output by a record amount. Natural gas can remain on a sideways path as it can face resistance near165 while taking support near 130 levels.

The weather is expected to be much warmer than normal on the west coast and much cooler than normal on the east coast according to the most recent report from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

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