Is Crude Going to Double in Price?

The below writeup is not to spread panic and is a scenario where we are assuming that if things do not go along as the world superpowers want and it may lead to a crude price rise or may trigger a war.

The USA has set Sunday 04 Nov 2019 as the last day that the nations of the world have permission to buy oil from Iran. Russia, China, and India announced that they will continue buying Iranian oil despite US threats. The US responds that as of 05 Nov 2019 those who buy Iranian crude will be sanctioned and their ships will suffer a naval blockade by the US navy.

Russia, China, and India warn the US that if they apply a naval block, they will break the siege with military force against the US transgressing ships. Iran adds that if they can not export oil nobody in the Persian Gulf will be able to export either because they will close the Strait of Hormuz. The US warns Iran that if it closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be opened by naval force. Iran responds that if any of its units are attacked by the US, it will attack the Persian Gulf fleet.

 Interestingly, on 05 Nov 2019, the global blockade against Iran begins and "the next day on the 6th Nov, it is the US legislative elections where we estimate that the Putin-Trump duo will rise with the majority in the cameras" because it is a nation where wars generate "votes" in favor of whoever provokes them.

Remember, there are a few days until hell can be released. So, remain observant because if Iran can not export its 3 million barrels per day, crude oil will rise in price, but if Iran, in retaliation, closes the Strait of Hormuz where 30% of the world's exported crude crosses, the price can be doubled or triple it fast. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz by sinking a couple of its own ships then how will the USA open it by force?

The USA is playing in this move, its title of "Single-Superpower". If the play fails you, it may lose the title. England, France, and Germany are going to join the US to try to subdue China, India, Russia and Iran. Will they be able?

This is the worst scenario being projected and we can hope that good sense will prevail and some via media will be allowed so that Iran does not become a rogue state.

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