Abhay Laijawala, HOR at Deutsche Equities has expressed his free and frank opinion on the target for Sensex and his verbatim speech is as appended below:
Our Sensex target for the year is 18,000. That implies an upside of 14% from here. We confess that it is not going to be a one way move. It is going to be a volatile year. Our expectation is that barring a problem in Europe or escalate intentions in the Middle East, we expect a relatively more sustainable rally in India to set in after March or so. We are watching March very critically because by March we do believe that the state election calendar will have panned out. The presentation of the Union Budget is after the state elections are held. The RBI credit policy in March is when the broad consensus is for the RBI to begin the loosening of monetary policy. We will probably have far more clarity on the European situation, given that a couple of countries are up redemptions. The markets will be watching those very carefully. So, we sense that confidence will probably come in after that. Therefore, our sense is that the Indian equity markets probably bottom either by the end of February or in March. This situation can change. We could see bottoming of the Indian equity markets earlier, if we see a surprise rate action from the Reserve Bank of India in the January credit policy or sooner than when consensus expects.
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