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Anil Manghnani, Modern Shares, Stock Brokers Views on Present State of Nifty

Anil Manghnani, Modern Shares, Stock Brokers has expressed hi8s views on going bullishness in stock market and his views on the subject are as appended below:

I think after long time, almost 15-16 months, we have had that channel just about closed above yesterday, so it will be interesting to see what it does over the next two days. Yes there was a little bit of volatility yesterday, but you need to see more of it to actually call a top. My gut feeling is this market is playing out very similarly to what happened between '92 and '96. We had two tops in '92- 94 and then a collapse in '95. We have had this similar situation in 2008 and 2010 with the tops and 2011 was a complete down; you started the year at high and closed at the low. Interestingly, if you go back to '96 February, you had a sharp move which is very similar to what we had in January this year, and then about 50% correction. So if I equate similarities between '96 and today, I would say the Nifty will give you at least a 50% correction of the recent moves somewhere between 5,300 and 5,400. So 4,500 right up to 5,400 is a 900 point move, so about 450 point correction is on the cards, so somewhere back to 5,049-5,050. But having said that, most of the stocks in the index and midcaps are now little stretched; they have all reached at 200 day moving averages. Since the 50 day in most cases are still well below the 200 day, then I would say they are ready or ripe for a correction. So look out for a top somewhere in the next 100 points on the Nifty and then expect at least a 50% correction of the recent move both in the index and across stocks.

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