Overall trend in markets is likely to remain sluggish till Thursday as major events like inflation numbers, IIP and election results are in the pipeline. Now market will be waiting with baited breath for election results in 4 states on Friday the 13th which is a rare combination and at times spell disaster. Another factor which needs to be considered is that SBI has raised rates by 75 bps which means that loan disbursements will slow down and it further means that loans will become costlier and not much investment projects may be forthcoming and may derail profitability for the companies. We will see a rally in the market if elections results are favourable for the ruling party and this is what is we call as impact of elections in stock market. Pranab Mukherjee Finance Minister has made it amply clear that India's economy may not grow around 9% in the current fiscal year to end-March 2012 due to volatility in international commodity prices and other supply constraints. Inflation is also likely to be in the range of 7 to 7.5% during this period.
Derivative Data UpdateThe Nifty May futures closed in a Doji pattern after facing strong resistance above
5,580 and getting support at 5,523. A Doji forms when the opening price is the same or very close to the closing price. These all indications poit to an indecisive state in the market as market has been closing in doji for past 3 days.
Crude prices fell nearly half a percent to $103.45 a barrel after the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies rose more than expected last week, suggesting demand growth may be faltering. If crude starts trading below $100 level we will also see inflation coming under control and will find that hawkish attitude of RBI will also stop with at best 50 basis points hike in the balance year.
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Support and Resistances for the Day
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Strong future shares at National stock exchange
Bata India, Max India, Exide Ind, Raymond, Hind Uni Lvr, DCB, ABB, MRPL, Petronet & Glaxo.
Weak future stocks at NSE
IRB, SRE Infra, LITL, Patni, Bank Of India, OnMobile, Renuka, IDFC, Patel Eng & HDIL.
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