Is SJVN Showing Signs of a Bottom or Is More Downside Still Possible?
SJVN has been a high-interest public sector stock over the past few quarters, especially after witnessing sharp price action driven by retail enthusiasm, power-sector optimism and momentum buying. However, enthusiasm does not always translate into sustainable structure, and the recent trend has become increasingly concerning for long-term investors. With the stock currently around ₹74, the question many shareholders are asking is simple: has SJVN bottomed out, or is there more pain ahead before a technical recovery can begin?
The chart pattern currently suggests a strongly bearish to weak-neutral structure. The downtrend began in late July last year and since then, lower highs and lower lows have continued without a meaningful reversal. The important price belt of ₹69–₹65 now acts as the next critical support zone. If this zone breaks decisively, the stock may even extend the decline towards ₹60 in a worst-case market spillover scenario.
Psychologically, these zones often become the “make-or-break” levels. If price absorbs selling and stabilises, a bounce to ₹78 or ₹80 cannot be ruled out. But if price accelerates downward without consolidation, investors must treat this as a trend continuation rather than a bottom formation.
Key Observations
🔹 Downtrend firmly intact since last July
🔹 Price struggling to stabilise above key supports
🔹 No confirmed bullish reversal signal yet
🔹 Bounce possible only above ₹80–₹82
🔹 Risk remains elevated for short-term holders
Investors who entered near higher levels (₹110–₹140 range) may currently feel the emotional load of “anchoring bias.” It is natural to hope for a sudden reversal when holding a stock after a steep decline. However, markets reward discipline, not emotional expectations. A trend reversal requires structural confirmation, not wishful thinking.
For traders using derivatives, large downtrending stocks often create both opportunity and traps. A disciplined structured entry with a stop-loss approach and a hedged strategy such as a Nifty Momentum Tip mindset may help avoid late emotional entries.
| Level Zone | Behaviour Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ₹69–₹65 | Watch for consolidation | Potential temporary support |
| ₹80–₹82 | Required breakout | First reversal confirmation |
| ₹90+ | Trend shift zone | Momentum recovery possible |
|
Strengths 🔹 Power sector remains structurally growing 🔹 Government-backed enterprise stability 🔹 Long-term demand outlook positive |
Weaknesses 🔻 Weak price structure and sentiment 🔻 Aggressive selling from higher levels 🔻 No trend confirmation yet |
|
Opportunities 💡 If ₹80 breaks, fresh momentum may appear 💡 Long-term SIP style accumulation possible only after reversal |
Threats ⚠️ Breakdown below ₹65 may trigger deeper fall ⚠️ Sector rotation away from PSU power stocks |
Investor Takeaway: SJVN is not yet in a confirmed reversal phase and remains structurally weak. Long-term investors must prioritise risk management and avoid averaging blindly in falling markets. As Derivative Pro & Nifty Expert Gulshan Khera, CFP®, advises, disciplined structure beats emotional averaging. Continue following insights at Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services.
SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.
