Which Indian IT Companies are most Impacted by H1B Visa Hike?

Why Is CLSA Saying $100k H1B Visa Fee Hike Will Barely Impact Indian IT?

CLSA, a leading global brokerage, has released its latest sector outlook on Indian IT companies following the US government’s move to raise the annual H1B visa fee to a steep $100,000 from the earlier $2,000–$5,000 range. This hike, effective from September 21, 2025, initially triggered concerns over cost structures and profitability for IT majors. However, CLSA’s detailed analysis reveals that the earnings impact is likely to be minimal, capped at around 0–6% of FY27 profit after tax (PAT). Among the companies covered, Persistent Systems and LTI Mindtree are expected to be the most exposed to this regulatory change.

Understanding CLSA’s Perspective

Indian IT firms have faced recurring visa-related hurdles in the US over the last decade, from the “Buy American, Hire American” campaign to higher restrictions on visa allocations. CLSA believes that over this time, companies have already adapted to an evolving environment, particularly by hiring locally and expanding near-shore centers in geographies like Mexico, Canada, and Latin America.

The brokerage notes that firms such as Persistent Systems and LTI Mindtree, which have a relatively higher dependency on new H1B filings, will take the largest hit—though still manageable. For larger players like Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and HCL Tech, the exposure remains significantly lower, reflecting their diversified employee pyramid and already high levels of local hiring in the US.

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Key defensive moves include local hiring in the US, higher reliance on subcontractors, and the establishment of near-shore delivery centers. Additionally, companies are increasingly using intra-company transfers via L1 visas to bypass H1B dependency. These strategies reduce operational risks and help maintain project continuity.

CLSA’s note highlights that Indian IT companies now employ less than 60% of their US workforce via H1B, with a majority being local hires. This structure ensures a stable workforce pipeline without significantly impacting client delivery, even under higher visa fee regimes.

US Macro Environment & Growth Outlook

The US economy has shown resilience since 2018, with tax reforms and steady digital transformation spending benefiting Indian IT services. With expectations of a US rate cut cycle in 2026, discretionary IT spending may see a rebound, further cushioning the impact of higher visa costs.

IT majors are expected to continue riding on cloud migration, SaaS adoption, and higher demand for digital transformation projects across BFSI, healthcare, and retail. CLSA believes that despite the new visa fee, IT demand cycles remain intact, and sector valuations could re-rate in the coming quarters.

Company-Wise Impact Assessment

- Persistent Systems: Highest exposure, ~6% FY27 PAT impact. - LTI Mindtree: Significant hit, ~5% FY27 PAT impact. - Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech: Impact capped at ~2–3%. - TCS: Negligible exposure, thanks to large local workforce.

Persistent Systems and LTI Mindtree are structurally more vulnerable due to their relatively higher reliance on fresh H1B applications. Larger peers, however, have diversified risk strategies that keep exposure well within manageable limits.

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Structural Industry Resilience

Over the past decade, Indian IT companies have steadily reduced their reliance on H1B visas while improving delivery models through digital platforms, hybrid teams, and automation. This evolution means fee hikes, though headline-grabbing, pose only marginal risks to overall sector profitability.

Even with increased costs, Indian IT firms remain cost-competitive versus global peers, ensuring strong client demand. The long-term growth drivers—cloud adoption, cybersecurity, AI integration—remain firmly in place.

Investor Takeaway

CLSA’s analysis suggests that while Persistent Systems and LTI Mindtree face a slightly larger earnings impact, the sector as a whole has built strong buffers against H1B-related risks. The fee hike, therefore, should not deter investors from Indian IT, especially given the upcoming US economic tailwinds in 2026.

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SEBI Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers must perform their own due diligence and consult a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are general in nature and may not suit individual investment objectives or financial situations.

Written by Indian-Share-Tips.com, which is a SEBI Registered Advisory Services

tags: H1B visa, Indian IT sector, Persistent Systems, LTI Mindtree, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL Tech, CLSA report, US visa policy, IT earnings impact